Tuesday 3 September 2013

Risk of Ambuja Cement

Systematic Factors
Ø  Increase in prices of key raw material i.e. Limestone and gypsum.
Ø  Increase in domestic coal prices and non-availability of low cost linkage coal has increased the power & fuel cost for cement manufacturers.
Ø  The freight costs have also increased due to increase in surcharge and cess by Indian Railways in Oct 2011 and increase in freight rates for some commodities in Mar 2012.
Ø  Hike in the prices of diesel.
Ø  Slowdown of production of cement by 3.8% in July-August because of the arrival of monsoon.
Ø  Rise in inflation rate from 8.87 % in 2011 to 9.30 % in 2012 leads to increase in prices of raw materials for cement industry.
Ø  Less demand in cement because of following factors.
*      Lack of stable leadership in PSU and corruption related investigations resulting in slowdown of govt. spending on projects.
*      Issues pertaining to land acquisitions, delays in securing the requisite approvals in Infrastructure projects.

Source (Annual reports of Ambuja, J K Lakshmi and Chettinad Cements and http://icra.in/Files/ticker/Indian%20Cement%20Sector_Sept%202012.pdf )



Unsystematic Factors
Ø  A decline in cement prices, against Ambuja’s Cement price estimates of a CAGR of 2.8% over 2012–2014 could impact their net profit.
Ø  Ambhuja Cement is unable to deliver the estimated volume CAGR of 10% during 2012–14
Ø  Chettinad Cement board approved de-listing the company's shares from stock exchanges.

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